With trade wars, polarized politics, and big business shakeups across the world over the past year, many observers would opine that the political and economic state of many nations is in flux. With this in mind, it’s time we step back and take a big-picture view of Canada from a political and economic standpoint, as well as theorize what could be in store for 2019.
According to Edelmen’s 2018 Trust Barometer, Canadians' trust in institutions (government, business, media, and NGOs) did not change between 2017 and 2018, staying at a relatively low level of distrust from the general public (49 on a trust scale of 100) and a low level of trust from the “informed” public (62 out of 100). The US saw the steepest drop in trust by the informed public, from 68 in 2017, down to 45 in 2018. Canadians also have an increased trust in authority figures compared to 2017, choosing to believe academic experts, technical experts, and financial industry analysts above “people similar to themselves”.
On the business side, Canadian companies are the most trusted globally, beating Switzerland, Sweden, and Australia to claim the number one spot. However, trust in most business sectors within Canada is declining, except for the energy industry, which actually saw a 4 percent increase between 2017 and 2018, reversing a three-year downward trend. The top trust-building mandates for businesses in Canada is to drive economic prosperity, invest in jobs, and innovate, whereas the top trust-building mandates in the US are to safeguard privacy, investigate corruption, and ensure equal opportunity.
As for Canada’s 2019 economic outlook, the Business Development Bank of Canadafocuses on five analyses: 1) the Canadian economy is expected to grow by 2 percent, 2) trade tensions won’t affect the global economy with US-imposed tariffs expected to be removed, 3) the US is expected to lead most countries on economic growth, 4) a strong US economy will put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, and 5) Canadian businesses will continue to struggle in hiring the people they need, stifling growth.
Additionally, a study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development shows Canada’s economy on shaky ground, with the growth of the nation’s “comprehensive wealth”, composed of five different types of capital (produced, natural, human, financial, and social), to be drastically behind other developed countries, and is in fact the only G7 nation undergoing a contraction of comprehensive wealth per capita. The risks to Canada’s economy include unprecedented levels of household debt, over-dependence on market-sensitive industries, zero growth in human capital, and climate change events (floods, wildfires, and storms).
Author
Viewpoint Research Team